The Horn of Africa, a region characterised by its diverse cultures, economies, natural resources, and political landscapes, faces significant security challenges deeply intertwined with historical conflicts, economic instability, and governance issues. From Asmara to Addis Ababa, and from Djibouti to Mogadishu, the countries in this region are confronting a spectrum of challenges, including political instability, militant extremism, cross-border insecurity, and ethnic and clan conflicts. These issues are compounded by high levels of poverty and unemployment, in a region where more than 60% of the population is under 25 years old, providing a reservoir of dissatisfied youth and disenfranchised individuals susceptible to recruitment by political militias and extremist groups.
Among these challenges, Somalia’s situation is especially critical. The country continues to face prolonged conflict, state fragility, and political disputes, compounded by the presence of militant groups with regional ambitions. However, recent developments, such as the completion of a key security roadmap, its membership in the East African Community, and strong international backing, indicate a possible shift towards greater stability.
This article focuses on Somalia's security dynamics, exploring the deeply rooted issues affecting human security, highlighting specific challenges arising from the ongoing counter-insurgency campaign, and offering targeted strategies that could address them effectively at various levels of government.
The Human Security Landscape
Throughout this article, the focus will be on personal, community, and political security experienced by the public in southern Somalia, to highlight the complex challenges faced by both individuals and the government in managing the ongoing counter-insurgency campaign. Human security prioritises individual well-being over state security, encompassing an individual’s security from economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, and political dimensions. By exploring these dimensions, the aim is to highlight the intersecting issues and identify potential solutions for enhancing human security amid the current conflicts.
In southern Somalia, personal security is severely compromised by frequent extremist attacks, creating a pervasive atmosphere of fear and instability, particularly in urban areas. Community security is also jeopardised by clan-based conflicts and political disputes, leading to localised violence and social fragmentation, which extremist groups further exploit. Political security is weakened by the lack of coordination and effective governance frameworks between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)and Federal Member States (FMS), resulting in a power vacuum often filled by militants and warlords.
These interconnected issues illustrate the complexity of human security in Somalia, where personal safety, community cohesion, and political stability are deeply connected. The growing competition for resources, including food and health, exacerbated by climate insecurity, adds another layer of difficulty. Therefore, addressing these security challenges requires coordinated efforts across various levels of government—from federal to district levels—as well as strategies to mitigate environmental pressures that could undermine progress.
Current Security Dynamics
Somalia's current security landscape is characterised by several critical issues. Firstly, the militant group Al-Shabaab remains a formidable threat to stability, funding its operations through illicit trade and extortion of both individuals and businesses. This financial stability allows the group to sustain a strong insurgency presence, particularly in rural areas, while continuing to launch attacks in urban centres, including Mogadishu.
Secondly, political contestations within FMS, especially regarding presidential elections and district formations, have created a volatile environment. These disputes often mirror past political fractures, leading to shifting alliances and rivalries that escalate clan conflicts at the local level, providing an opportunity for Al-Shabaab to capitalise on the divisions to destabilise and garner support from those who are marginalised.
Thirdly, despite recent successes, the FGS's counter-insurgency campaign continues to face significant challenges, including a perceived slowdown and setbacks largely due to the absence of a comprehensive strategy that combines military gains with local reconciliation efforts. The announcement of a new phase expanding the counter-insurgency operations to Southwest State and Jubaland State comes at a time when Al-Shabaab is seeking to position itself as a strong opponent against both the government and local forces by taking advantage of setbacks, including the recapturing of areas previously liberated by government and militia forces.
Phase 1 of the FGS's insurgency campaign in Hiiraan emphasised important lessons, particularly the need for a unified command structure and clear political objectives. The lack of an integrated operational and political strategy has resulted in fragmented efforts and challenges in creating a cohesive front against Al-Shabaab. Additionally, poor coordination between federal and state authorities and insufficient local reconciliation processes has further complicated counter-insurgency efforts.
Finally, the international community's approach needs to adapt to the complex realities on the ground. Generic calls for strengthening government institutions and improving accountability fail to address the nuanced ecosystem of norms and traditions in Somalia. Effective support must be conflict-sensitive and focus on building trust and coordination between individuals, communities, and institutions. This approach will help establish a sustainable local security framework and address the broader political and social challenges that have hindered progress for over a decade and a half.
The changing geopolitical landscape, marked by Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland and Somalia's defence partnership with Türkiye, further highlights the strategic significance of the Horn of Africa. This evolving context highlights the need for a cohesive international strategy to support Somalia's security sector and navigate the regional tensions impacting its stability.
African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia is an active African Union transition and drawdown mission from peace keeping operations in Somalia.
It would be remiss not to touch on the security dynamics faced by Somalia in relation to the drawdown of the ATMIS. For an objective assessment of the situation, it is imperative that the withdrawal be viewed through the prism of the ongoing counterinsurgency against Al-Shabaab. The gradual withdrawal of ATMIS forces has naturally raised concerns about the capacity of Somali security forces to maintain order post-ATMIS. However, it is essential to recognise that the situation in Somalia is distinct from other conflict zones, particularly Afghanistan, where the sudden withdrawal of international forces led to a swift takeover by the Taliban. Clearly, Somalia's social, ethnic, and political landscape differs considerably, and Al-Shabaab lacks the equivalent of the Taliban's deeply rooted Pashto support base. This difference suggests that alarmist comparisons to Afghanistan may not be fully applicable to Somalia.
For the FGS and the FMS, the primary concern should not be the anticipation of a catastrophic collapse of government forces like in Afghanistan. Instead, the focus should be on continuing to build and sustain momentum in the fight against Al-Shabaab through the further development and enhancement of the model for supporting and maintaining hybrid localised security agreements that can provide the space and time to develop government structures. Noting that Al-Shabaab, by all accounts, may still remain a potent force, it does not command the same level of broad-based support that the Taliban did within a specific ethnic constituency, which is a majority in Afghanistan. The Afghan analogy is therefore misplaced, as Somalia's clan dynamics, the nature of Al-Shabaab's insurgency, and the international community's involvement present a different set of challenges and opportunities. The Somali security forces, with continued support and strategic planning, have the potential to manage the security situation without a dramatic deterioration.
Furthermore, those who fear that the withdrawal of ATMIS will result in Al-Shabaab overrunning Somali security forces across the country by drawing parallels to the rise of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) are also mistaken. The ICU was able to galvanise support across Somalia[1] by uniting against warlords who were seen as the primary source of instability. Al-Shabaab, however, does not enjoy the same level of popular appeal; its brutal tactics and indiscriminate violence have alienated large segments of the Somali population. Unlike the ICU, which had a unifying message, Al-Shabaab is largely viewed as a divisive and destructive force. While the withdrawal of ATMIS presents challenges, Al-Shabaab lacks the means, capacity, and legitimacy to fully exploit the opportunity or subjugate the Somali people on a national scale. This makes a complete takeover unlikely, provided that the Somali government continues to strengthen its security apparatus and engage with local communities to identify opportunities for developing localised hybrid security structures.
The Way Forward
‘It is God's kindness to terrify you in order to lead you to safety.’ - Rumi
Just as Rumi reminds us that fear can lead us to safety, the alarming and often unsettling narratives comparing the ATMIS withdrawal to the Afghanistan scenario have undoubtedly exercised the minds of government officials, politicians, tribal elders, and the public at large. An alternative and more likely scenario to this dominant analysis equating Somalia and Afghanistan, is that in the absence of government forces, there is plausible resurgence of clan militias and even warlords under the banner of defending the clan.
Therefore, amid the present counter-insurgency campaign and the drawdown of ATMIS, it is essential for the Somali government, at both state and federal levels, to integrate human security principles into their military strategies. Prioritising the protection of civilians is not only a moral imperative but also a strategic necessity. Counter-insurgency operations must be designed and executed in ways that minimise harm to civilians and support the rebuilding of communities. Minimising civilian casualties will not only demonstrate the government’s commitment to the well-being of civilians but also undermine Al-Shabaab’s narrative and appeal in a manner that isolates them further from the civilian population. Additionally, by incorporating human security into the counter-insurgency strategy, the government can advance greater trust and cooperation from local communities, which is critical forgathering intelligence and ensuring long-term stability.
Improving collaborative efforts between federal and state authorities will be crucial for creating a secure and stable environment in which human security can be restored and sustained. The fragmentation of authority and the lack of coordination between different levels of government, particularly security institutions, have often hampered efforts to combat Al-Shabaab effectively. Enhancing collaboration should include joint planning and resource sharing, based on specific localised security assessments, as well as establishing clear shared objectives, including lines of authority and responsibility for addressing threats. By establishing clear lines of communication, shared objectives, and coordinated actions between federal, state, and district entities, security measures will be consistently applied across all regions, reducing the risk of insurgents exploiting gaps in coverage. Additionally, strengthening these partnerships and encouraging cooperative approaches would enable a more unified and strategic response to the insurgency, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the counter-insurgency campaign at the local level and helping to build a more resilient and responsive governance structure capable of addressing both immediate security concerns and longer-term development goals.
Furthermore, developing and agreeing on a model for establishing, supporting, and integrating clan militias into localised hybrid security arrangements is essential for a coherent national counter-insurgency strategy. If clan militias are properly managed and incorporated into a comprehensive district, regional, state, and national counter-insurgency plan, they can play a vital role in maintaining local security. Their deep-rooted connections to communities can be leveraged to enhance local security, providing localised intelligence that would be crucial for operations. The success of clan militias in Hiiran exemplifies the impact these forces can have in clearing areas with the support of state and federal forces. However, it is important to ensure that militias are properly managed and integrated into security frameworks under a unified command structure to adhere to national security policies and avoid the risk of them becoming rogue elements. By incorporating these militias into the broader security framework, the government can harness their local knowledge and influence while improving overall security capabilities, increasing the sense of ownership and responsibility among local communities in the fight against Al-Shabaab, and contributing positively to the overall counter-insurgency strategy.
Finally, it is crucial for federal and state institutions to jointly develop a "day after" plan for supporting the establishment of governance and service provisions through localised processes for reconciliation, mediation, and agreed political representation that are more nuanced than those outlined in the Somalia Transition Plan. The ‘day after’ plan should outline the steps needed to transition from military operations toa stable governance structure at the local level, ensuring that the gains made on the battlefield are translated into locally led, lasting solutions and stability. Put simply, as military operations are conducted under a hybrid security arrangement to push back Al-Shabaab, these localised processes must begiven the opportunity to develop governance structures that are capable of reinforcing the success of the hybrid security arrangement.
By enabling these localised, inclusive, and accountable governance structures to respond to the unique dynamics and social contours of specific areas, we can prevent the resurgence of Al-Shabaab, taking advantage of opportunities arising from a lack of cohesion, and ensure that liberated areas remain stable and secure. This comprehensive localised approach will be critical in consolidating military gains, effectively filling the resulting power vacuums with legitimate and effective governance structures—a clear lesson that has been proven again and again during the past 18 months’ counter-insurgency campaign. Without a ‘day after’ plan, Al-Shabaab will return.
Why does this matter to us?
Our mission - We have a stake in the game.
We have been collaborating closely with communities throughout Somalia, aiming to enhance peacebuilding efforts and improve outcomes in governance, reconciliation, security, and justice services. Our work is grounded in both our personal and collective experiences and values.
In these challenging times, we invite a re-evaluation of how we approach “security” and how we can better serve the communities we support. Current discussions often focus on strategies and perceived threats, overlooking the real-life impacts and the complex socio-political and security challenges stemming from a lack of human security.
What are we doing about it?
Our Work – Uniting Communities for a Stronger, Peaceful Somalia
Our work is guided by the principle of supporting the effort to advance peace and stability across Somalia by promoting dialogue, cohesion, and accountable public service delivery at all levels of government. We believe that sustainable progress can only be achieved when all stakeholders, from grassroots communities to national institutions, are actively engaged in driving change. Therefore, our multidisciplinary approach to programming is designed to build resilient structures that can withstand multiple and interlinked risks.
One of the key initiatives we have undertaken is the organisation of town halls in Baidoa, Southwest State of Somalia. These town halls are designed to bring together individuals, communities, and institutions to engage in open and constructive dialogue about the pressing issues within their district, particularly focusing on security and justice. By creating a platform for state and citizen engagement (which diverse populations can access) a civic space is created to bring much needed voice to citizens and accountable responses by duty bearers be agreed.
The success of these town halls lies not only in their ability to bring together communities and institutions but also in their potential to be adapted and replicated across other districts. It is through inclusive approaches such as these that a foundation is built for communities and government to develop and agree on hybrid localised solutions to their security issues.
In addition to our work with town halls, Asal is also supporting the development of legislation, and institutional strengthening for the transition to a civilian oversight of the police in Jubaland and Southwest State. This initiative is crucial for enhancing public confidence in law enforcement by ensuring that police actions and activities are accountable and aligned with the expectations of the communities they serve. The implementation of a civilian-controlled, independent oversight mechanism will be a groundbreaking step for Somalia, as it will help flesh out the structure and accountability measures outlined in the nationally agreed New Policing Model.
Conclusion
Somalia's path to stability remains a multifaceted and intricate journey, defined by a confluence of historic grievances, complex clan dynamics, and persistent insurgent threats. As the FGS and FMS navigate these turbulent waters, addressing the multifaceted security challenges requires a nuanced approach, balancing immediate counter-insurgency efforts with long-term strategies for sustainable peace and governance.
The withdrawal of ATMIS adds a layer of urgency to the already daunting task of stabilising the country. However, comparisons to other conflict zones like Afghanistan, while often cited, fail to capture the unique socio-political landscape of Somalia. Unlike the Taliban’s deep-rooted base in Afghanistan, Al-Shabaab lacks broad-based popular support, and its brutality has largely alienated the Somali populace. This divergence offers a critical opportunity for the Somali government to leverage its understanding of local dynamics and build a more resilient security framework.
Key to Somalia’s stabilisation is the integration of human security principles into military and governance strategies. Prioritising the protection of civilians and advancing local reconciliation will not only undermine Al-Shabaab’s appeal but also enhance the credibility and effectiveness of the Somali government. The emphasis should be on creating inclusive and accountable governance structures that are responsive to the diverse needs of Somali communities. This involves strengthening federal-state coordination, incorporating clan militias into a coherent security framework, and developing localised governance solutions that address both immediate and long-term needs.
The international community has a crucial role to play in supporting these efforts. Rather than generic calls for institutional strengthening, support must be tailored to the specific context of Somalia, ensuring that interventions are conflict-sensitive and aligned with local realities. This approach will help build a sustainable security architecture that integrates local knowledge and advances trust between the government and its citizens.
Somalia stands at another important crossroads. The choices made today will shape the country's trajectory for years to come. It is imperative for all stakeholders—both domestic and international—to work in partnership towards a comprehensive strategy that blends immediate counter-insurgency measures with enduring solutions for governance and community cohesion. As we invest our expertise and resources into Somalia’s peacebuilding efforts, we are not only engaging in our professional duty but participating in a deeply personal mission to contribute to the stability and prosperity of a nation that profoundly impacts our collective and individual destinies.
[1] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/17531050701452382
